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AC

Absci Corp (ABSI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $0.593M and diluted net loss per share was $0.24; Street consensus expected $1.214M revenue* and $0.209 EPS*, implying a material revenue and EPS miss .
  • Balance sheet strengthened in July via $50M underwritten offering and ~$14M via ATM; company now guides cash runway into 1H 2028 versus 1H 2027 previously .
  • Pipeline catalysts remain the near-term stock drivers: ABS-101 Phase 1 interim readout in 2H 2025, and ABS-201 Phase 1/2a initiation in early 2026 with interim efficacy expected 2H 2026 .
  • Business development momentum: expanded Almirall collaboration (second target) with up to ~$650M total milestones across two programs; management continues to anticipate signing one or more large pharma partnerships in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We have strengthened our financial position and now have cash runway into 2028” following the July capital raises, removing financing overhang near-term .
  • ABS-101 advancing: Phase 1 trial initiated in May; interim readout expected 2H 2025; management emphasized potential quarterly dosing and sustained target engagement .
  • Almirall expanded its AI drug discovery collaboration, selecting a second dermatology target; Absci is eligible for up to ~$650M in milestones plus royalties across both programs .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue and EPS missed Street estimates: Q2 revenue $0.593M vs $1.214M* and EPS -$0.24 vs -$0.209*, reflecting milestone-timing lumpiness and limited near-term partnered revenue recognition .
  • Operating expenses increased YoY: R&D $20.5M vs $15.3M, driving net loss of $30.6M vs $24.8M YoY, as internal programs progressed into clinical and IND-enabling phases .
  • Revenue concentration and timing remain a concern; CFO reiterated partnership revenue will be “relatively lumpy,” highlighting dependency on signing and milestone schedules .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.665 $1.179 $0.593
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.25 -$0.21 -$0.24
Consensus Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.768*$1.313*$1.214*
Consensus EPS ($USD)-$0.224*-$0.223*-$0.209*
Revenue Variance (Actual - Consensus, $USD Millions)-$1.103 (Miss)* -$0.134 (Miss)* -$0.621 (Miss)*
EPS Variance (Actual - Consensus, $USD)-$0.026 (Miss)* +$0.013 (Beat)* -$0.031 (Miss)*
Operating MetricsQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$18.4 $16.4 $20.5
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)$8.8 $9.5 $8.5
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)$29.8 $27.7 $31.4
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$29.0 $26.3 $30.6
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$112.4 $134.0 $117.5
Post-quarter Capital Raise ($USD Millions)——~$64.0 (gross)

Note: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

No segment revenue breakdown disclosed; revenue comprised partner program revenue only .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash runwayCorporateInto 1H 2027 Into 1H 2028 Raised
ABS-101 Phase 1 interim readout2H 20252H 2025 2H 2025 Maintained
ABS-201 Phase 1/2a startEarly 2026Early 2026 Early 2026 Maintained
ABS-201 interim efficacy2H 20262H 2026 2H 2026 Maintained
Large pharma partnership(s)2025Anticipate ≥1 Anticipate ≥1 Maintained
Equity financingJuly 2025Proposed $50M offering Priced $50M + ~$14M ATM Executed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Mar)Q1 2025 (May)Q2 2025 (Aug)Trend
AI/technology initiativesAMD collaboration announced; $20M strategic investment (Jan 2025) Platform progressing; AI case studies highlighted AMD compute supporting antibody design workloads Strengthening
Partnerships/BDExpect new partnerships incl. large pharma in 2025 Anticipate ≥1 large pharma in 2025 “Expect to close at least one new large pharma deal this year” Maintained momentum
ABS-101 (TL1A)Planned Phase 1 initiation 1H 2025 Phase 1 initiated; interim in 2H 2025 Interim readout 2H 2025; quarterly dosing potential Advancing
ABS-201 (PRLR, alopecia)DC nominated; IND-enabling started NHP PK: >90% SC bioavailability; Q8–12W potential Phase 1/2a early 2026; subcu formulation targeted; SAD IV/MAD SC Accelerating
Regulatory/legal—FDA exploring reduced animal testing and AI-based safety models; Absci supportive —Supportive backdrop
Revenue recognition——Partnership/milestone revenue recognized “lumpy” over time Lumpy timing persists
Pipeline breadthHIV caldera, oncology programs (ABS-301/501) positioning/progress Continued in vivo work; DC nomination pending ABS-301/501 viewed as partner-suited; in vivo package completion targeted Progressing toward partnering

Management Commentary

  • “We have strengthened our financial position and now have cash runway into 2028.”
  • “We expect to close at least one new large pharma deal this year.”
  • On ABS-201 dosing: “We expect to see a six month treatment cycle… two or three doses over a period of six months delivered subcutaneously.”
  • On ABS-101 differentiation: “The data readout will be able to confirm the half life, which we are anticipating to be once quarterly.”
  • On revenue recognition: “Partnership agreements… are milestone oriented. So the revenue is going to be relatively lumpy.”

Q&A Highlights

  • ABS-101 Phase 1 readout scope: management aims to validate extended half-life supporting Q8–12W dosing, low immunogenicity, and sustained target engagement via elevated soluble TL1A over time .
  • ABS-201 formulation/dosing: plan for subcutaneous delivery; SAD IV then MAD SC; target high concentration (180–200 mg/mL) enabling 2–3 doses over 6 months; potential for controlled, provider-led administration initially .
  • Competitive TL1A landscape: management views quarterly dosing alignment with clinic visits; sees differentiation via bispecific with a novel arm versus common combos (e.g., IL‑23/α4β7) .
  • BD pipeline and capacity: capacity assessed quarterly; platform efficiencies enable more programs per unit cost while pursuing a large pharma partnership in 2025 .
  • Revenue timing: lumpy milestone recognition expected for platform and asset transactions with large upfronts followed by milestones .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Revenue miss ($0.593M vs $1.214M*), EPS miss (-$0.24 vs -$0.209*). Prior quarter Q1 2025 saw revenue miss ($1.179M vs $1.313M*) but EPS beat (-$0.21 vs -$0.223*). Q4 2024 revenue and EPS also missed consensus ($0.665M vs $1.768M*; -$0.25 vs -$0.224*) .
  • Implication: Street models likely need to reflect continued milestone timing variability and limited near-term revenue scale; focus should be on pipeline milestones and partnering cadence (ABS-101 interim, Almirall progress, large pharma platform deal) .

Note: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term stock drivers are clinical and BD catalysts (ABS-101 interim in 2H 2025; ABS-201 initiation early 2026; large pharma platform deal), not quarterly revenue prints .
  • Balance sheet de-risked: ~$64M gross raised in July; runway extended into 1H 2028, enabling execution through multiple potential value inflections without immediate financing needs .
  • ABS-101 aims for quarterly dosing, high bioavailability, and lower immunogenicity risk profile; watch interim PK/PD/immunogenicity and any partnering announcements .
  • ABS-201 targets a large, under-served, self-pay aesthetic market; subcutaneous high-concentration formulation and 2–3 doses per 6 months could be commercially attractive if efficacy is confirmed .
  • Revenue/margins remain non-informative near-term due to milestone lumpiness and low partner revenue; model cash burn and milestone probabilities rather than quarterly beats/misses .
  • Expanded Almirall deal validates platform’s ability to drug difficult targets; milestone potential (~$650M across programs) provides upside optionality .
  • The AI compute partnerships (AMD) and platform advances are strategic moats reinforcing BD narrative and potential economics in future deals .